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NATO will integrate Ukraine gradually

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NATO

Intensified cooperation with NATO, including arms transfers and intelligence sharing, has led to a significant upgrade of Ukraine’s military capabilities and capacity to fight…

Ukraine’s EU membership will not be fast-tracked

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EU

This is a morale booster for Kyiv, but a lengthy accession procedure, likely vetoes from pro-Russian or Ukrainian-neutral governments, and uncertainty over the war’s course will…

Beijing-ASEAN South China Sea tensions will grow

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CHINA/ASEAN

While there is always potential for unplanned escalation, recent incidents in the area are unlikely to change the basic dynamics there: China’s increasing assertion of ‘on-water’…

Foreign policy has a major role in Trump's campaigning

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US

As the leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, Trump will increasingly shape partisan resistance to President Joe Biden’s foreign policy agenda for 2024.

Russia will employ new military unit across Africa

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RUSSIA

Unlike the Wagner private military company (PMC), it is subordinated to the Russian state. The first confirmed deployment of African Corps forces is to Burkina Faso, where it will…

War may not prevent elections in Ukraine

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UKRAINE

Zelensky’s statement followed weeks of growing speculation that a wartime election might be held. However, it is still unclear if elections -- either parliamentary or…

Armenia's relations with Russia will worsen

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ARMENIA

The rapid defeat of ethnic Armenian forces exposed the weakness of Russian security guarantees. Yerevan had already expressed dissatisfaction with Moscow's diminishing ability to…