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Prospects for the euro-area to end-2023

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2023

Tourism and other customer-facing sectors are growing solidly even though above-target inflation is squeezing disposable incomes. However, strong services activity is keeping core…

German-French defence tensions will persist

Location:

GERMANY

Berlin argues that Arrow 3 will close a capabilities gap in its air defence, though some analysts regard it as unnecessary. It is stepping up defence spending after years of…

Central US treasury clearing marks substantial change

Location:

UNITED STATES

One change will be that FICC members -- typically big banks and broker-dealers -- must settle their clients' treasuries trades through the clearing house. This is critical to the…

Earthquakes may dent but not halt Turkish tourism boom

Location:

TURKEY

Turkey’s tourism sector, which is an important source of foreign exchange, economic activity and employment, could have a record year in 2023. Foreign visitor arrivals could grow…

Prospects for the global economy in H2 2023

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2023

Labour and housing markets are slowing very gradually, but the strength of services is preventing a faster fall in headline inflation. The pass-through effects of interest-rate…

Iran is approaching the limits of its oil expansion

Location:

IRAN

Iran’s increasingly skilled sanctions evasion (aided by less intense US enforcement) has made it the second-largest contributor to higher global oil output over the past year…

Iron ore is set to face a supply surplus from 2025/26

Location:

INT

Beijing seeks to reduce price volatility for ore and hence steel through market restructuring and to increase Chinese self-sufficiency. This comes at a time when ore exporters…

Pressure for water access will intensify in Mexico

Location:

MEXICO

Reducing water supplies are an established problem in the area, and recent events highlight long-term mismanagement of the water-supply infrastructure that has allowed the…

Doha will hedge against LNG dependence

Location:

QATAR

Earlier in January, it awarded contracts to increase and sustain output at its main oilfield. Doha wants to dilute its overdependence on a single commodity and to extract value…

US federal support will continue to aid green energy

Location:

UNITED STATES

Initial funding from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which contains much of the Biden administration’s clean energy agenda, became available during 2023. Much of the…