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Ukrainian grain dispute is likely to drag on

Location:

UKRAINE

A glut of Ukrainian agricultural products has driven down prices in neighbouring countries, prompting several governments to impose unilateral import bans. Protests by Polish…

Russian LNG sales will be stymied by a lack of tankers

Location:

RUSSIA

Russia’s gas export strategy is predicated on the rapid growth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Following the collapse of pipeline gas sales to Europe, Russia’s plans to…

Attacks on Russian refineries will cause oil shortages

Location:

RUSSIA

The rising frequency of drone attacks is raising the risk of oil product shortages within Russia. Already Western sanctions on the supply of spare parts had made the maintenance…

Ukraine’s leadership reset will have a limited effect

Location:

UKRAINE

As with the February reshuffle of the military command, these changes have been presented as part of an effort to ‘reset’ decision-making and improve governance. The president's…

Ukraine cyberdefences will have impact beyond Russia

Location:

INT

A few Russian cyberattacks directed at Ukrainian satellite and mobile infrastructure have been disruptive, but many more have seemingly been thwarted. This indicates both that…

The EU’s phase-out of Russian gas is not guaranteed

Location:

EU

This is the trajectory followed by the majority of member states. However, blockages remain in east-central Europe, where Turkey could play a role in maintaining direct or…

Russia will remain a world-class submarine power

Location:

RUSSIA

The navy has been more successful in modernising its submarine force than its surface fleet. Although it has fallen short of its original targets set in 2011, the new submarines…

Russian agri-food exports to China will grow briskly

Location:

RUSSIA

Over the past two decades, Russia has reoriented its economic centre of gravity to Asia and China in particular. At first, trade growth was built around the sale of hydrocarbons…

Baku will resist a quick peace deal with Armenia

Location:

ARMENIA

The latest round of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Geneva on March 22 ended without any concrete progress on negotiations over a bilateral peace agreement. The meeting…

Landslide win gives Putin six more years

Location:

RUSSIA

Putin won 87% of the vote on 74% turnout, surpassing the 68% seen in 2018. Communist candidate Nikolai Kharitonov came second with just under 4%. Scattered opposition protests and…