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Tanzanian politics will focus on electoral reforms

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TANZANIA

The massive demonstration, the first of its kind in seven years, is just one of many indications that Tanzania’s political class is shifting into pre-election mode ahead of local…

Opposition repression will poison Chad reconciliation

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CHAD

Major opposition figure Succes Masra, who subsequently fled into exile, on October 16 indicated that he would postpone his planned return to Chad. This follows threats of…

Chad's referendum will boost Deby's ambitions

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CHAD

The vote stems from recommendations made in a 2022 national dialogue process. Along with general elections planned for 2024, the referendum constitutes a key step in the timetable…

Military interventions face limits in the Sahel

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WEST AFRICA

Both are in the process of finalising their departures, amid deteriorating relations with the Nigerien and Malian juntas respectively, and growing popular rejection of the…

Niger will look to Western partners to boost security

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NIGER

This represents a key success for Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum’s policy of leveraging strong relations with Western partners as a core element in his security strategy to…

Congo-Brazzaville's economic recovery will be fragile

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CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE

The bloc aims to deny President Denis Sassou Nguesso a fifth consecutive presidential term. Sassou Nguesso meanwhile is seeking to benefit from an economic turnaround to…

Chad may face humanitarian crisis from Sudan conflict

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CHAD

Many are fleeing ethnically targeted violence conducted by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and affiliated militias. The UN estimates that the number of refugees could reach 600,000…

French image management in Africa faces challenges

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AFRICA

In large part, these aim to counter growing popular and elite hostility to French policies in the region. They also respond to the related growth of Russian ambitions in France’s…

Chad’s peace deal will be only partially successful

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CHAD

However, prominent rebel groups -- including the Front for Alternation and Concord in Chad (FACT), responsible for the death of President Idriss Deby in April 2021 -- refused to…

France will reduce its West African military footprint

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WEST AFRICA

French forces completed their withdrawal from Mali in August. The current force posture, with some 3,000 troops based mostly in Niger and Chad, will remain unchanged in the short…