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The budget deficit is increasing markedly and will probably top 6% of GDP in 2024 -- the highest level since the late 1980s -- while economic growth remains in the 2-3% range.
President Nayib Bukele is highly popular, having implemented hard-line security policies that have reduced murder rates dramatically. He was re-elected in February by a landslide…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB286620
ISSN: 2633-304X
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The new agreement envisages a primary surplus of 2% of GDP, a zero general deficit and reserves accumulation of USD10bn; it includes no new funding. However, the widening gap…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB284724
ISSN: 2633-304X
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The move followed a sweeping decree issued on December 20 to reform or eliminate some 300 laws governing economic, labour and social issues, and which has already prompted…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB284267
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Bond markets have responded positively to Milei’s victory, followed by the announcement that he would re-privatise state oil company YPF and other companies, but domestic exchange…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB283523
ISSN: 2633-304X
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However, since the August primaries his goal has shifted to winning the elections, or at reaching a run-off, prompting expansionary policies aiming to improve households’…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB282141
ISSN: 2633-304X
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ARGENTINA: Electoral turbulence will worsen inflation
Although pre-election spending normally militates against a sharp drop in growth in election years, there is little margin for this in a context of low reserves, spiralling…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB279852
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Various interest groups, including the private sector, political actors and civil society organisations, are likely to put pressure on the government to reduce its revenue targets…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB273323
ISSN: 2633-304X
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BRAZIL: High interest rate will contribute to slowdown