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MALI: Jihadist leader death will boost junta narrative
MALI: Junta risks alienating key local constituency
MALI: Some northern rebels may defect to jihadists
MALI: Jiahdists will seek to exploit northern defeat
MALI: Recapturing Kidal could boost junta
MALI: A guerrilla war may follow Kidal's fall
MALI: UN withdrawal from Kidal may lead to fighting
MALI: Human rights reporting will become harder
MALI: UN faces major dilemma over peacekeeping mission
MALI: Jihadists may exploit north-south tensions