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Engaging with Afghanistan will get harder for West

Location:

AFGHANISTAN

This was a reference to criticism of Taliban rule by certain international players. While engagement between the emirate and the West remains limited, the Taliban are drawing…

Georgia will face serious obstacles to EU membership

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GEORGIA

Georgia officially embarked on the path to EU membership along with Ukraine and Moldova shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite Tbilisi not meeting the…

ASEAN will pursue incremental engagement in Myanmar

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MYANMAR

Myanmar’s junta for the first time accepted the invitation to have a ‘non-political’ representative at high-level ASEAN meetings, standing since its exclusion from such events…

Kenya's courts and counties expand Ruto’s challenges

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KENYA

Separately, the government is locked in a battle with county administrations that are demanding increased funds. Together, devolution and a resolute judiciary are complicating…

Election plans carry risks for Sri Lanka’s leader

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SRI LANKA

According to the constitution, the next presidential election must take place in September-October 2024, but parliamentary polls are not due until 2025. Wickremesinghe is heavily…

Ethiopia’s commitment to transitional justice may fade

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ETHIOPIA

Ethiopia has campaigned for an end to the ICHREE’s mandate by touting a draft transitional justice policy as an alternative to international oversight.

Afghan opposition will struggle to remain relevant

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AFGHANISTAN

Meanwhile, long-standing opposition groups such as the National Resistance Front (NRF) and Afghanistan Freedom Front (AFF) have re-launched armed campaigns within Afghanistan.

Prospects for Colombia in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

His Historic Pact suffered a major setback in October’s local elections, with opposition figures set to govern some of Colombia’s largest cities (including Bogota) from January 1…

Prospects for Colombia to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

With political opposition and public dissatisfaction showing no sign of abating, the government's reform agenda is unlikely to pass Congress. The administration’s ‘Total Peace’…

Iran will likely attack exiled Kurdish groups in Iraq

Location:

IRAN

Exiled Kurdish parties are demanding greater autonomy for Kurds in Iran. However, Tehran accuses them of wanting separatism and blames them for fomenting the Mahsa Amini protests…