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Policy must look beyond pay to raise living standards

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INTERNATIONAL

Elections have already given the public an opportunity to vent their anger about low wages and the scarcity of better job opportunities -- the former is prevalent among low-paid…

Politics clouds Central Europe’s short-term outlook

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CENTRAL EUROPE

Last year ended dramatically, with the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ordering the Polish government to suspend its reform of the Supreme Court, and the European Commission…

Prospects for the global economy in 2023

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PROSPECTS 2023

Prospects for the global economy in 2023.

Prospects for the global economy in 2021

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PROSPECTS 2021

Europe and the United States may slip back into recession in the northern hemisphere winter. If vaccination succeeds, the advanced economies will recover robustly from mid-2021…

Prospects for frontier economies in 2018

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PROSPECTS 2018

Prospects for frontier economies in 2018.

Hungary cannot easily replace lost EU funding

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HUNGARY

EU finance ministers in response postponed decisions on paying Hungary EUR5.8bn under the post-COVID-19 recovery plan, and whether to freeze EUR7.5bn from the ‘cohesion’ funds due…

Inequality drives macro imbalances, fuelling tensions

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INTERNATIONAL

Alternative explanations focus on chroncially weak investment and the relocation of production from developed to developing markets. The diagnosis matters because these imbalances…

Prospects for the global economy to end-2020

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PROSPECTS 2020 H2

COVID-19 dominates the scenarios for the next six months, which range from a swift sharp recovery to another dramatic fall in activity. Policy responses, financial markets…

The great GDP contraction may herald huge crowding out

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INTERNATIONAL

Economic stimulus schemes and gaps.

2023 will test East European V4 economies’ resilience

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EASTERN EUROPE

Economic hardship may be increasing support for populism and far-right politics, especially in the more vulnerable Slovakia and Hungary. Proximity to the war, including spending…