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New Brazil government faces economic challenges

Location:

BRAZIL

For 2023, the market expects a significant slowdown, with growth of around 0.8%. This presents a highly challenging context for President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his finance…

Brazil election poses rising fiscal risks for 2023

Location:

BRAZIL

Given his low popularity, Bolsonaro adopted a series of measures to mitigate the effects of accelerating inflation, economic slowdown and increasing poverty. The objectives are…

Rapid recovery will prove elusive in Argentina

Location:

ARGENTINA

The primary surplus (0.6% of GDP) was driven by a 35% real fall in primary spending, which offset a recession-induced 4.5% drop in revenues. Month-on-month inflation has also…

Eastern EU may target those vulnerable to inflation

Location:

EU

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cut the supply of major staples to the Baltic states and the Visegrad Four (V4: Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia). Local factors, such as import…

Early Argentine economic successes are unsustainable

Location:

ARGENTINA

The government has posted the first fiscal surplus in years, inflation has declined and foreign currency reserves have risen from USD21.0bn in mid-December to USD28.5bn. However…

Chile inequality debate will drive tax reform demands

Location:

CHILE

Although both the bill’s legislative future and the amount it would raise are uncertain, it reflects ever more explicit class polarisation and anger over inequalities.

Prospects for the Russian economy in 2020

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PROSPECTS 2020

Prospects for the Russian economy in 2020.

UK Brexit is likely to worsen inequality

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UNITED KINGDOM

The consensus among most economists is that whatever the eventual deal, the United Kingdom will be worse off in the long run as a result of leaving the EU. However, the economic…

South African land reform will prove tortuous

Location:

SOUTH AFRICA

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has sought to calm fears that such a policy will lead to Zimbabwe-style ‘land grabs’ yet concerns persist over potential impacts to the…

The Spanish government faces difficult months ahead

Location:

SPAIN

Spain has been harder hit by rising prices than other EU states. The governing Socialist Party (PSOE) and Unidas Podemos (UP) have clashed over the appropriate response, with the…