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Next EU parliament will likely be more right-wing

Location:

EU

EU-wide trends are overshadowing national political dynamics. Identity and Democracy (ID) and the European Conservative and Reformist (ECR) groups are benefiting from voter…

North Macedonia will clash with EU and neighbours

Location:

NORTH MACEDONIA

The right-wing Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) topped the presidential and parliamentary polls, having…

Somalia and Turkey may struggle to realise oil deal

Location:

SOMALIA/TURKEY

The deal builds on the recent ten-year agreement on maritime defence cooperation. Somalia is believed to have significant onshore and offshore oil and gas potential. However…

Beijing-ASEAN South China Sea tensions will grow

Location:

CHINA/ASEAN

While there is always potential for unplanned escalation, recent incidents in the area are unlikely to change the basic dynamics there: China’s increasing assertion of ‘on-water’…

Serbian leader may rue unexpectedly large election win

Location:

SERBIA

The elections, just 20 months after the last ones, resulted in a larger-than-expected victory for the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), which regained the parliamentary…

Israel-Palestinian Hamas Gaza war has deep roots

Location:

PALESTINIANS/ISRAEL

The unusual attack by a member of the premier’s own party references long-standing divisions within Israel’s right wing about the decision to evacuate Gaza settlements nearly two…

Iraq's militias will move to consolidate power

Location:

IRAQ

The militias have targeted Israel but largely avoided targeting US bases, for fear of Washington's retaliation and to reduce tensions with their own government. The attacks on…

Turkish foreign policy will seek a power balance

Location:

TURKEY

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…

EU tech controls on China will not toe US line

Location:

EU

This has led the EU to adopt tools and risk assessments for controlling China’s access to European ‘critical technologies’. These moves are driven by sectional European…

Myanmar junta is at a crossroads

Location:

MYANMAR

The military government has in recent months lost considerable territory to its battlefield opponents, including ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) that have long fought the…