Search results

Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2023

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2023

Despite recent economic stabilisation, future growth prospects are severely limited owing to Russia’s international isolation. A prolonged war in Ukraine would threaten the…

Prospects for the euro-area to end-2023

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2023

Tourism and other customer-facing sectors are growing solidly even though above-target inflation is squeezing disposable incomes. However, strong services activity is keeping core…

Gulf economies are on a stable track despite risks

Location:

GULF STATES

The IMF has revised downwards its forecast for Saudi GDP growth in 2024 to 2.7% but raised its 2025 forecast to 5.5%. This reflects a positive medium-term outlook for the Gulf…

High employment and low wages will curb Russian growth

Location:

RUSSIA

In defiance of expectations following the imposition of severe sanctions, the unemployment rate has hovered around 3.2%. Yet rather than a sign of resilience, low unemployment…

Macron faces political risks over French fiscal woes

Location:

FRANCE

The government is highly dependent on steady GDP growth to meet its pledges on deficit-reduction and tax cuts. It was forced to implement EUR10bn (USD10.7bn) in emergency cuts in…

Smaller trade surplus will keep ruble low this year

Location:

RUSSIA

Pronounced ruble depreciation this year attests to the efficacy of sanctions in disrupting Russia’s external trade. The weaker ruble has already provoked a spike in household…

Oil is a risk to the Middle East/North Africa rebound

Location:

MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA

MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA: Growth will rebound in 2024

Romanian fiscal and external deficits will remain wide

Location:

ROMANIA

Romania is among the member states liable to the EDP. Although its debt is relatively low at 47.9% of GDP, Romania has wide budget and current account deficits, yet its tax-to-GDP…

Market concentration will remain high in Latin America

Location:

LATIN AMERICA

Markets in the region are characterised by the dominance of a small number of large firms, and the Bank believes that governments can spur growth by strengthening competition…

Risks will outweigh recovery chances in Eastern Europe

Location:

EASTERN EUROPE

The economic environment has been dictated by Russia’s war in Ukraine and its market and policy implications. Next year, the prospects for the V4 economies are moderately upbeat…