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Parallel imports continue to support Russia’s economy

Location:

RUSSIA

Parallel imports have played a crucial role in securing the supply of goods for the Russian economy. The creation and management of parallel import channels is now an important…

Sanctions will increase risks for Russian economy

Location:

RUSSIA

However, although output has grown, a tight labour market and persistent inflation have created new problems. The reorientation of trade away from Europe has resulted in a…

Smaller trade surplus will keep ruble low this year

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RUSSIA

Pronounced ruble depreciation this year attests to the efficacy of sanctions in disrupting Russia’s external trade. The weaker ruble has already provoked a spike in household…

High employment and low wages will curb Russian growth

Location:

RUSSIA

In defiance of expectations following the imposition of severe sanctions, the unemployment rate has hovered around 3.2%. Yet rather than a sign of resilience, low unemployment…

China’s exports will recover but trade sanctions loom

Location:

CHINA

Chinese exports grew by 7.1% year-on-year in US dollar terms, while imports expanded by 3.5%. The trade gap narrowed to USD39.7bn in February. Export growth was buoyed by rapid…

Russian car market will adjust to new conditions

Location:

RUSSIA

RUSSIA: Car market will adjust to new conditions

Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Despite recent economic stabilisation, future growth prospects are severely limited owing to Russia’s international isolation. A prolonged war in Ukraine would threaten the…

Russian household consumption is recovering slowly

Location:

RUSSIA

This was the first acceleration after twelve consecutive declines and was driven by an 11% rise in the prices of services. The war in Ukraine has exposed Russia’s consumers to…

Chinese trade diversion will shape Asian commerce

Location:

CHINA

US efforts to friend-shore and ‘de-risk’ supply chains have forced China to reroute trade flows, with India and Vietnam emerging as key low-cost manufacturing hubs. Meanwhile…

Recovery of Russian consumption is likely to moderate

Location:

RUSSIA

Strong household demand, now restored to pre-war levels, mitigated the impact on GDP of falling exports last year. The consumer market is profoundly changed, with new brands from…