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Risks and opportunities 2019: The biggest risks

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The contest between China and the United States will shape many of the key risks in 2019

Near- and friend-shoring markedly alter trade flows

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The United States, Europe and Japan are trading more together and less with China, which is trading more with Russia

The world economic downturn will be mild but prolonged

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Core CPI is easing towards 2% official targets in major nations, but not fast enough for rate cuts to boost 2024 growth

China-US intellectual property tension will intensify

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The United States and China are at opposite ends of the intellectual property spectrum -- setting the scene for friction

Ambiguous norms encourage more daring cyberattacks

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The harmful effects of cyberattacks may increase as states test the boundaries of accepted norms in cyberspace

Cyber threats drive global technological decoupling

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5G relies heavily on software and will be the core underlying infrastructure for all future digital activities

Pandemic will accelerate the rise of digital payments

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Digitalisation of the global economy has increased the use of cashless payments worldwide

Chinese-made electric cars will attract Western wrath

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Chinese-manufactured BEVs are cheaper than Western models, accounting for nearly 10% of EU sales and 50% of imports

New harmful trade interventions will fall into 2024

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Trade protectionism grew in 2020 and 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

A China crisis is bigger systemic threat than markets

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China’s influence on the global real economy is a bigger risk than events in fragile Italy, Turkey and Argentina