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Smaller trade surplus will keep ruble low this year

Location:

RUSSIA

Pronounced ruble depreciation this year attests to the efficacy of sanctions in disrupting Russia’s external trade. The weaker ruble has already provoked a spike in household…

OPEC+ cuts to hit Russian external surplus into 2021

Location:

RUSSIA

Foreign investment slowed, private capital flowed out and geopolitical risk and ruble depreciation dented foreign investors' appetite for Russian government bonds.

Oil price will stay subdued globally in 2016

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

The likelihood of a production-cutting deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers has diminished, and the moderate rebound in prices at end-January has reversed. In 2016, demand…

Russian economic gloom belied by benign debt outlook

Location:

RUSSIA

Russia's foreign and domestic debt position.

Prospects for Middle Eastern oil economies to end-2022

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2022

Prospects for Middle Eastern oil economy to end-2022.

Imposing Iraqi fiscal discipline will face challenges

Location:

IRAQ

The government is preparing to send the 2023 budget to parliament. Some politicians favour a large increasing in spending, giving little space for technocratic arguments that the…

Azerbaijan faces hard search for new growth drivers

Location:

AZERBAIJAN

The government wants to develop non-hydrocarbon sectors to offset the growth and fiscal problems stemming from lower global oil prices. The economy contracted in 2016 for a second…

Azerbaijan must adjust to less oil at lower prices

Location:

AZERBAIJAN

Negative trends in Azerbaijan's economy.

Prospects for the global economy in 2016

Location:

PROSPECTS 2016

Prospects for the global economy in 2016.

Kazakh fiscal buffers soften oil and COVID-19 blows

Location:

KAZAKHSTAN

The projected fiscal deficit of 3.5% of GDP assumes a forecast 2.1% economic contraction this year. The authorities have used their ample fiscal space and large sovereign wealth…