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Creditors will seek geopolitical gains in debt talks

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Whereas developed economies and China have benefited from USD9tn in fiscal stimulus and USD5tn in liquidity, EMs have less scope because they cannot issue local-currency debt…

COVID-19 and oil shocks raise Gulf recession risks

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GULF STATES

Lower oil and gas revenues are the major transmission channel of the global crisis to regional economies, but tourism, financial and professional services are also taking a major…

Emerging Asia activity will slow despite China rebound

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INTERNATIONAL

ASEAN's growth is nevertheless expected to outpace global growth, of which China and India are expected to contribute more than 50% -- India about 15% and China around 35%.

Nepal is unlikely to face a severe economic crisis

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NEPAL

Some observers fear Nepal could soon end up in a full-blown economic crisis such as that now affecting Sri Lanka, which recently suspended external debt servicing. Kathmandu, like…

Virus second wave will derail Greek budget forecasts

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GREECE

The official baseline is for an 8.2% GDP contraction in 2020, and a 7.5% rebound in 2021. It took into account moderate restrictions on movement in winter 2020/21, but the…

Prospects for South-east Asia to end-2020

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PROSPECTS H2 2020

This is helping to insulate them from immediate political pressures relating to the pandemic crisis, but their hopes for spurring long-term economic recovery depend greatly on…

Morocco can get through COVID-19 and drought shocks

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MOROCCO

This follows an earlier downgrade from Fitch. Morocco’s principal exports -- automotive, phosphates and tourism in particular -- are vulnerable to global market volatility…