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Creditors will seek geopolitical gains in debt talks

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INTERNATIONAL

Whereas developed economies and China have benefited from USD9tn in fiscal stimulus and USD5tn in liquidity, EMs have less scope because they cannot issue local-currency debt…

New Zealand budget will help government for now

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NEW ZEALAND

The coalition has been in office since October 2017 under Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. This budget combines fiscal restraint with increased social, foreign affairs and aid…

COVID-19 and oil shocks raise Gulf recession risks

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GULF STATES

Lower oil and gas revenues are the major transmission channel of the global crisis to regional economies, but tourism, financial and professional services are also taking a major…

Prospects for South-east Asia in 2021

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PROSPECTS 2021

All are aiming to revive economies badly hit by the pandemic’s fallout. The ten ASEAN states and five of the bloc’s dialogue partners recently signed a Regional Comprehensive…

Emerging Asia activity will slow despite China rebound

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INTERNATIONAL

ASEAN's growth is nevertheless expected to outpace global growth, of which China and India are expected to contribute more than 50% -- India about 15% and China around 35%.

Nepal is unlikely to face a severe economic crisis

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NEPAL

Some observers fear Nepal could soon end up in a full-blown economic crisis such as that now affecting Sri Lanka, which recently suspended external debt servicing. Kathmandu, like…

Uruguay's uncertain economy imperils political plans

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URUGUAY

Economic and political challenges in 2015.

Virus second wave will derail Greek budget forecasts

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GREECE

The official baseline is for an 8.2% GDP contraction in 2020, and a 7.5% rebound in 2021. It took into account moderate restrictions on movement in winter 2020/21, but the…

Domestic demand to boost Bolivia’s economic rebound

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BOLIVIA

Public investment halved in comparison with 2019 while on the supply side, mining, manufacturing and construction posted major slumps. All sectors contributed to the overall…

Prospects for South-east Asia to end-2020

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PROSPECTS H2 2020

This is helping to insulate them from immediate political pressures relating to the pandemic crisis, but their hopes for spurring long-term economic recovery depend greatly on…