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Italy could be heading for a deeper recession

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ITALY

Italy's economy.

Chile COVID-19 success will determine economic impact

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CHILE

It forecasts that although activity will contract this year, growth in 2021 will be stronger than expected before the pandemic.

Prospects for the Russian economy in 2021

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PROSPECTS 2021

President Vladimir Putin has dropped ambitions to lift Russia into the top five global economies and postponed by six years to 2030 his plan to halve the poverty rate. The…

Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Despite recent economic stabilisation, future growth prospects are severely limited owing to Russia’s international isolation. A prolonged war in Ukraine would threaten the…

Online sales give rare hope to hard-hit Russian retail

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RUSSIA

After a temporary surge in demand for food in March, monthly retail turnover fell sharply, driven primarily by low sales of durable goods in April-May. Smaller retailers were hit…

Pressure will grow on Italy’s debt sustainability

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ITALY

Successful use of EU funds is vital to putting the economy on an improved trajectory, but Italy has a poor record on absorbing EU funds. Failure would compound the country's…

Virus impact will make Bulgaria keener to adopt euro

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BULGARIA

The country’s successful two-month lockdown ended on May 13. Bulgaria has raised its debt ceiling fivefold for this year and plans to sell debt on international markets…

Ireland’s Varadkar will face daunting challenges

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IRELAND

Varadkar’s Fine Gael (FG) has been in coalition with Fianna Fail (FF) and the Greens since 2020; they agreed that Varadkar would replace FF leader Micheal Martin as taoiseach…

Soft landing has become more likely in Central Europe

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EU

The NBP’s March Inflation Report lowers its forecast for average CPI significantly to 1.7%, from 3.2% in its November forecast; GDP is to grow by 4.0% (November: 3.6%). Outside…

High employment and low wages will curb Russian growth

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RUSSIA

In defiance of expectations following the imposition of severe sanctions, the unemployment rate has hovered around 3.2%. Yet rather than a sign of resilience, low unemployment…