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Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Despite recent economic stabilisation, future growth prospects are severely limited owing to Russia’s international isolation. A prolonged war in Ukraine would threaten the…

Economic demise set to continue, but farming is a hope

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UKRAINE

The hryvnia crisis, which has seen the currency's value plummet, has deepened. However, as reported by Reuters, the NBU decision was suddenly reversed following heavy criticism…

Public spending will drive growth in Romania

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ROMANIA

Investment in infrastructure has offered opportunities for economic expansion despite shrinking exports, weak consumption, inflation and high interest rates. Romania’s positive…

Trade ban may derail Ukraine's modest growth spurt

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UKRAINE

President Petro Poroshenko ordered an official ban on trade with the east on March 15 after a six-week railway blockade halted coal and steel traffic. The breakdown in the complex…

Russian banks face another tough year in 2023

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RUSSIA

Banking-sector stability is vital for the functioning of the Russian economy: bank credit is facilitating economic restructuring. Although the sector withstood the first impact of…

East European growth in 2023 will be modest at best

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EASTERN EUROPE

Some countries are dipping into recession, while others are likely to manage modest growth. Their various policy and real-economy responses point to different strengths and…

2023 will test East European V4 economies’ resilience

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EASTERN EUROPE

Economic hardship may be increasing support for populism and far-right politics, especially in the more vulnerable Slovakia and Hungary. Proximity to the war, including spending…

Militarisation will cause rising distortions in Russia

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RUSSIA

Record levels of defence spending have led to surging demand for inputs used to manufacture military equipment, driving up output across various sectors. However, evidence of…

Automation alters Central-Eastern Europe growth needs

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CEE

Future of work in CEE economies.

Recovery of Russian consumption is likely to moderate

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RUSSIA

Strong household demand, now restored to pre-war levels, mitigated the impact on GDP of falling exports last year. The consumer market is profoundly changed, with new brands from…