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EU oil ban will bite into Russia's budget and GDP

Location:

RUSSIA

Oil sales to the EU netted an average USD10bn in March and April; this revenue stream will be lost if European leaders can agree unanimously on a ban. Refined products as well as…

Prospects for the Russian economy in 2023

Location:

PROSPECTS 2023

Prospects for the Russian economy in 2023.

Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Despite recent economic stabilisation, future growth prospects are severely limited owing to Russia’s international isolation. A prolonged war in Ukraine would threaten the…

Gulf economies are on a stable track despite risks

Location:

GULF STATES

The IMF has revised downwards its forecast for Saudi GDP growth in 2024 to 2.7% but raised its 2025 forecast to 5.5%. This reflects a positive medium-term outlook for the Gulf…

Russia's budget revenue forecast may prove optimistic

Location:

RUSSIA

The Ministry of Finance is seeking new ways to boost federal revenues to fund rising military expenditure, as well as any pledges made during the forthcoming presidential election…

Russia's economic decline will continue this year

Location:

RUSSIA

The recession was far shallower than expected; early forecasts had predicted a contraction of up to 10%. However, economic decline will continue into 2023. Unprecedented sanctions…

War threatens lasting risks for Germany’s economy

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GERMANY

The impact of the war in Ukraine, and Western sanctions on Russia, is already harming the economy through higher energy and consumer prices plus trade disruption. The German…

Prospects for the Middle East in the second quarter

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PROSPECTS Q2 2015

Prospects for the Middle East in the second quarter.

Eastern EU will push Brussels for more farm aid

Location:

EASTERN EU

Farmers in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are demanding strong government support as they deal with droughts and the economic ripple effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine…

2023 will test East European V4 economies’ resilience

Location:

EASTERN EUROPE

Economic hardship may be increasing support for populism and far-right politics, especially in the more vulnerable Slovakia and Hungary. Proximity to the war, including spending…