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UK government’s fiscal plans are not sustainable

Location:

UNITED KINGDOM

Despite the short-term improvement in the fiscal position, the budget does not make major changes to macroeconomic policy or reverse planned tax increases. Instead, the government…

Eastern EU may target those vulnerable to inflation

Location:

EU

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cut the supply of major staples to the Baltic states and the Visegrad Four (V4: Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia). Local factors, such as import…

Slovenia’s government will work with new president

Location:

SLOVENIA

Although her victory -- as an independent candidate -- is not what the governing Freedom Movement (GS), Social Democrat (SD) and Left (Levica) parties hoped for, they are relieved…

South African budget prompts cheer and wider divisions

Location:

SOUTH AFRICA

However, cuts to the social grants budget and a continued focus on the planned three-year wage freeze for civil servants has annoyed (among others) the ruling ANC's ‘Tripartite…

East European growth in 2023 will be modest at best

Location:

EASTERN EUROPE

Some countries are dipping into recession, while others are likely to manage modest growth. Their various policy and real-economy responses point to different strengths and…

Parts of Greek economy will be unreformed post-bailout

Location:

GREECE

Greece will re-enter international capital markets solely on the strength of its economy, after a near-decade-long recession that wiped out one-quarter of its output and left…

Swedish policies will be influenced by far-right party

Location:

SWEDEN

SD, previously a pariah, increased its vote share to 20.5%, from 17.5% in 2018. It is the largest rightist party in a bloc that has a three-seat majority. The centre-right parties…

Prospects for South Africa in 2021

Location:

PROSPECTS 2021

Yet market sentiment remains sceptical of Pretoria’s ability to deliver on the package, implement steep and politically contentious expenditure cuts and boost growth. Meanwhile, a…

Spain should avoid recession but growth will slow

Location:

SPAIN

Spain has outperformed other EU economies thanks to a resurgence in demand for tourism, with spending close to 2019 levels, and its relatively limited direct exposure to the…

Prospects for Western Europe in 2019

Location:

PROSPECTS 2019

Prospects for Western Europe in 2019.