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Early Argentine economic successes are unsustainable

Location:

ARGENTINA

The government has posted the first fiscal surplus in years, inflation has declined and foreign currency reserves have risen from USD21.0bn in mid-December to USD28.5bn. However…

Brazil fiscal and welfare spending demands will clash

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BRAZIL

The economy is at a crossroads: high unemployment and increasing poverty are generating pressures for greater income transfers, but the delicate fiscal position is generating…

Midterm polls will knock Argentine budget off course

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ARGENTINA

The debate has been delayed by November 14 midterm elections. However, the budget has already been criticised both by the opposition, which considers the forecasts excessively…

Revenue-sharing returns to Argentine political agenda

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ARGENTINA

In 2015 the economic downturn and the electoral calendar undermined provincial finances. The outlook is no better for 2016, forcing provincial governors to seek fresh funds. In…

Interest rates will continue to rise in Brazil

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BRAZIL

The increase, the largest since 2002, comes despite low growth expectations and reflects concerns over rising inflation, with the Central Bank warning of a similar rate rise in…

Fiscal risks worsen debt outlook in Argentina

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ARGENTINA

The lifting of export taxes and the recession have already undermined the government's goal of reducing the fiscal deficit: in 2016 the primary deficit-to-GDP ratio will be even…

Brazil labour market improves but doubts will persist

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BRAZIL

Unemployment fell to 7.4% at the end of 2023. Despite a fall in the participation rate, the positive figures also show that over 100 million people are currently employed…

Brazil's fiscal situation will improve gradually

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BRAZIL

That followed a primary surplus equivalent to 0.5% of GDP in 2022. The negative result in 2023 was partly caused by exceptional circumstances, notably the early payment of…

Macri faces conflicting pressures in Argentina

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ARGENTINA

Although styled as the more 'business-friendly' candidate, Macri will face numerous challenges in making rapid macroeconomic changes, despite the need to do so. Since 2003, when…

Brazil's Rousseff faces bleak second-term panorama

Location:

BRAZIL

Only a month into her second term, President Dilma Rousseff faces an increasingly complicated panorama. In addition to fallout from corruption investigations into state-controlled…