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Further South African interest rate cuts are unlikely

Location:

SOUTH AFRICA

South African inflation dynamics.

More reforms will follow thin Uruguay referendum win

Location:

URUGUAY

The result was narrow, allowing for different readings by the government and opposition. While the government celebrated the support for the reform package, the opposition was…

Inflation expectations matter more than unemployment

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INTERNATIONAL

The surge in inflation this year owes more to supply bottlenecks caused by the release of pent-up demand than to falling unemployment. In the decade before the pandemic, US…

Russian policy toolkit mixes rate rises and price caps

Location:

RUSSIA

This is high enough to worry the Central Bank of Russia (CBR): inflation has hovered around 4%, the bank's target level, for the last four years. The CBR has responded with…

Colombia’s economy faces sluggish growth in 2024

Location:

COLOMBIA

Expectations for 2024 suggest lower inflation than last year, but risks persist. The OECD forecasts moderate GDP growth, highlighting inflation and interest rate concerns. Minimum…

Inflation and labour shortages will feed into wages

Location:

US/EU

Reflecting this, US pay rises were the highest in more than 20 years, and euro-area pay rises the highest in more than 25 years. Broader measures of compensation were more…

Strains of war are beginning to show in Russia

Location:

RUSSIA

The invasion of Ukraine is causing strains in Russian society to show, with opposition to another mobilisation and rising appetite for peace talks. The economy is overheating in…

Wage-price spiral risks should moderate in the West

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INTERNATIONAL

Many employees in sectors experiencing labour shortages are able to negotiate higher pay. Central banks are stepping up the pace of monetary policy tightening, both to slow down…

Prospects for the US economy to end-2017

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2017

Prospects for the US economy to end-2017.

Economic 'escape velocity' hinges on Japan's consumers

Location:

JAPAN

The Japanese economy seems unable to get up to cruising speed. One impediment after another has caused growth to lag expectations. The most recent indicators suggest that next…