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Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Despite recent economic stabilisation, future growth prospects are severely limited owing to Russia’s international isolation. A prolonged war in Ukraine would threaten the…

Cyprus is becoming less attractive to Russian business

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CYPRUS/RUSSIA

The exodus of Russian capital from Cyprus.

Volatility of Mexican peso likely to worsen in 2018

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MEXICO

The peso is depreciating sharply due to renewed uncertainty surrounding the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Further volatility may be caused by an acrimonious and…

Chances for negotiated Serbia-Kosovo deal are fading

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KOSOVO

The Kosovan government imposed a 10% tariff on imports from Serbia and Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) on November 6, frustrated at their refusal to recognise Kosovo’s independence…

Shared aims could trump Turkey-Iran tensions in Iraq

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IRAN/TURKEY

Abadi is walking a difficult line between Turkish and Iranian allies, who fear each other’s intentions in Iraq. These tensions are focused on the post-Mosul era, which opens the…

Beijing-Washington ties will be competition-based

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CHINA/UNITED STATES

Despite some positive short-term outcomes, the two sides’ read-outs reflect the structural nature of their competition and the limits that this places on cooperation.

Belarusian need for Russia will limit angry disputes

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BELARUS/RUSSIA

Belarus is defying Russia with varying success. It has scored a win by securing aircraft purchases rather than handing over air bases, but is hamstrung by oil and gas disputes…

Colombia changes will boost Venezuela's Maduro

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VENEZUELA

Political and commercial normalisation and the opportunity of deepened energy and security relations will change the dynamics of Venezuela’s domestic political conflict to the…

Gloomy outlook for Russian extractives, manufacturing

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RUSSIA

New EU restrictions on oil imports from December and a price cap on seaborne crude are expected to reduce Russian oil production, whose recent recovery has temporarily obscured…

More disputes are likely despite Belarus-Russia deal

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BELARUS/RUSSIA

A meeting between President Alexander Lukashenka and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in early April appeared to resolve multiple disputes and set their countries back on a…