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War of attrition in Ukraine is unlikely to end soon

Location:

UKRAINE

After Ukraine’s summer counter-offensive failed to achieve any of its major objectives, Russia has regained the initiative in the ground war. It captured the frontline fortress…

Philippine leader faces challenge to retain support

Location:

PHILIPPINES

A day earlier, the opinion pollster Pulse Asia Research released the results of a survey in which his government had majority approval ratings on eleven out of 13 key issues. The…

EU will struggle to gain post-COVID Balkan influence

Location:

BALKANS

The European Commission has prepared for the summit by making public a package of financial support for the Western Balkans as the region struggles to emerge from the COVID-19…

Another Turkish military coup cannot be ruled out

Location:

TURKEY

They had lost an appeal against life sentences handed down in 2018, but suspended on appeal, for ousting Turkey’s first Islamist-led government. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan…

Mali's opposition will struggle to challenge the junta

Location:

MALI

Presidential elections were indefinitely postponed in September 2023. Prime Minister Choguel Maiga has stated that persistent insecurity means that elections are unrealistic…

Post-poll turmoil may worsen Pakistan’s economic woes

Location:

PAKISTAN

The elections, resulting in a fractured mandate and marred by allegations of rigging, have increased polarisation. Separately, Pakistan’s nine-month, roughly USD3bn Stand-By…

Ukrainian military reshuffle is a gamble for Zelensky

Location:

UKRAINE

The appointment of General Oleksandr Syrsky as Zaluzhny's replacement and of other senior officers to the military command is the greatest political change in Ukraine since the…

Military interventions face limits in the Sahel

Location:

WEST AFRICA

Both are in the process of finalising their departures, amid deteriorating relations with the Nigerien and Malian juntas respectively, and growing popular rejection of the…

German-French defence tensions will persist

Location:

GERMANY

Berlin argues that Arrow 3 will close a capabilities gap in its air defence, though some analysts regard it as unnecessary. It is stepping up defence spending after years of…

Somali offensive against al-Shabaab faces setbacks

Location:

SOMALIA

This follows multiple political and military setbacks in the FGS’s offensive against jihadist group al-Shabaab, which has delivered notable gains over the past year but is now at…