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New Turkish Cypriot leader is chance for settlement

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CYPRUS/TURKEY

Reunion of the island is now an option, for the first time since the Turkish invasion of 1974. There is strong international support, but designing a deal acceptable to both…

China-Germany ties will be impacted by trade clashes

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CHINA/GERMANY

Germany’s trade and supply-chain dependence on China, and its sizeable corporate investments in the country, are at odds with pressure from both Brussels and Washington to take a…

Turkey's EU accession process is sick but not dead

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TURKEY/EU

The prospects for Turkey's EU membership bid.

Russia will remain popular in parts of eastern EU

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EU

Polls show strong sympathy for Moscow in Bulgaria and in Hungary as well. Pro-Russian attitudes result in weak public buy-in for Western sanctions in all three countries and…

Turkey will be less secularist after Erdogan

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TURKEY

Erdogan is the second head of government (after Necmettin Erbakan, 1996-97) to emerge from a specifically Islamist political movement. Under his leadership, Islam has become more…

Poland will strengthen security amid espionage fears

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POLAND

The event was just one in a succession of similar developments in the country that Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government has blamed on covert Russian and Belarusian operations…

Popular ire may upset ZANU-PF's Zimbabwe election plan

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ZIMBABWE

The ruling ZANU-PF party appears to be trying to control the campaign and outcome to a much greater extent than in 2018. However, this effort is being complicated by record levels…

Armenian murders show unequal relations with Russia

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ARMENIA

This would fail to meet Armenian demands that murders committed on its territory, by a soldier who had gone off base, be tried in an Armenian court. The tragedy sparked a new…

Italy's Renzi will face critical tests before year-end

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ITALY

This is a crucial step for the government before year-end, together with long-term banking issues and slowing economic recovery. The European Commission has allowed Italy…

Default risk drives Venezuela institutional crisis

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VENEZUELA

In a major misstep linked to frantic efforts to raise monies for looming bond payments, on March 29 the Supreme Court (TSJ) temporarily usurped the functions of the…