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Prospects for the US economy to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Since labour market tightness is now the key source of inflationary pressures, slower economic activity will increase unemployment. Research by Ben Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard…

Prospects for the global economy in H2 2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Labour and housing markets are slowing very gradually, but the strength of services is preventing a faster fall in headline inflation. The pass-through effects of interest-rate…

Prospects for Eastern EU to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Governments will rely on EU funding to re-energise their countries' economies, compensating for slowing external demand and depressed consumption. The war in Ukraine will…

Prospects for the euro-area to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Tourism and other customer-facing sectors are growing solidly even though above-target inflation is squeezing disposable incomes. However, strong services activity is keeping core…

Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Despite recent economic stabilisation, future growth prospects are severely limited owing to Russia’s international isolation. A prolonged war in Ukraine would threaten the…