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Passage from speculative to investment grade (IG) would mark the end of the sovereign debt crisis besetting the country since 2009. The upgrade would lower government borrowing…
The official baseline is for an 8.2% GDP contraction in 2020, and a 7.5% rebound in 2021. It took into account moderate restrictions on movement in winter 2020/21, but the…
Inflation rates are rising sharply across Central-Eastern Europe (CEE), mainly thanks to a recovery in commodity prices. A flurry of stronger-than-expected economic data is…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB218505
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Geographic
Topical
Concerns over energy supply from Russia increase the chances that inflationary pressures will persist throughout 2022, potentially worsening the cost-of-living crisis in many…
The ECB remains reluctant to increase rates, as supply-side shocks are the main cause of high consumer-price inflation, while core inflation is only barely above the 2…
The Commission recommended an EDP on November 21, on the grounds that Italy was in violation of the debt-reduction target set by the Stability and Growth Pact. This is the first…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB240491
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Reasons behind the euro-area growth slowdown.
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB241892
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Topical
While the scope for widespread contagion across Southern Europe is much more limited this time around because of the new ownership structure of Greece's public debt -- more than…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB195797
ISSN: 2633-304X
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A Constitutional Court ruling outlawing the 2012 pension reform highlighted the risks of significant deviations from austerity policies. However, even with a budget deficit of 3…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB200730
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Geographic
Topical
That plan -- sent to the Commission on October 15 -- encompasses a significant fiscal easing. The Italian government must reply by October 22.