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South African budget prompts cheer and wider divisions

Location:

SOUTH AFRICA

However, cuts to the social grants budget and a continued focus on the planned three-year wage freeze for civil servants has annoyed (among others) the ruling ANC's ‘Tripartite…

EU will push healthcare in African diplomacy

Location:

EU/AFRICA

This has sought to guard against negative perceptions of the bloc and counteract China’s competitive ‘mask diplomacy’. The importance of EU-African health partnerships is set to…

Creditors will seek geopolitical gains in debt talks

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INTERNATIONAL

Whereas developed economies and China have benefited from USD9tn in fiscal stimulus and USD5tn in liquidity, EMs have less scope because they cannot issue local-currency debt…

Prospects for the global economy in 2021

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PROSPECTS 2021

Europe and the United States may slip back into recession in the northern hemisphere winter. If vaccination succeeds, the advanced economies will recover robustly from mid-2021…

Virus second wave will derail Greek budget forecasts

Location:

GREECE

The official baseline is for an 8.2% GDP contraction in 2020, and a 7.5% rebound in 2021. It took into account moderate restrictions on movement in winter 2020/21, but the…

More developing countries will face debt distress

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INTERNATIONAL

EMDC debt distress.

IMF unlikely to resolve Zambia's debt conundrum

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ZAMBIA

While the G20's new Common Framework for Debt Treatments provides a new mechanism for debt restructuring, it also requires Zambia to convince the IMF that it has disclosed all of…

Rising Lebanese chaos may hinder elites and protesters

Location:

LEBANON

COVID-19 cases have spiked in the wake of the devastating August 4 explosion that destroyed parts of Beirut, causing mass casualties and forcing the resignation of Prime Minister…

Armenia and Georgia need external funds for crisis

Location:

ARMENIA/GEORGIA

Commodity exports have been hit in both countries, the Georgian tourism sector has become a source of weakness, and Armenia is exposed to Russia because of trade and labour…

Growth may accelerate under new Slovak government

Location:

SLOVAKIA

The governing coalition has a comfortable parliamentary majority, but faces gathering concerns over Prime Minister Robert Fico's health, teachers' protests over wages and…