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Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe in 2018

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PROSPECTS 2018

Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe in 2018.

UK economy faces a shallow yet prolonged downturn

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UNITED KINGDOM

The IMF forecast assumes UK interest rates peak at 6.0% (from 5.25% currently), and linger at 4.0-4.25% through to 2028. The IMF’s forecasts are similar to those of the Bank of…

Dominican monetary policies pave way for growth

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DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

The relative sluggishness is due partly to the delayed impacts of financial tightening and reduced global demand. While domestic demand has been the primary engine of growth, the…

Next Argentine president will face tough IMF demands

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ARGENTINA

With second-quarter targets unmet, the deal was delayed by conflicting positions on fiscal and exchange policies. Economy Minister Sergio Massa’s recent policy package paved the…

Higher oil prices damage India’s economic outlook

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INDIA

GDP growth picked up in the final quarter of 2017. The improvement was broad-based; manufacturing, construction, services and agriculture all expanded. However, higher oil prices…

Cooperative Italy-EU relations will remain for now

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ITALY

It was the second time they met since Meloni’s election in September, with both leaders reaffirming the importance of cooperation in the economic recovery, immigration and the war…

Poland’s expected new government faces range of risks

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POLAND

Financial markets are betting that ending the Law and Justice (PiS) party’s eight-year rule will help unlock EU funds, strengthen Poland’s institutions and increase its…

UK government’s fiscal plans are not sustainable

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UNITED KINGDOM

Despite the short-term improvement in the fiscal position, the budget does not make major changes to macroeconomic policy or reverse planned tax increases. Instead, the government…

Mexico’s economy should sustain modest growth in 2018

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MEXICO

Mexico economy update.

Massa rallies but Argentina run-off remains open

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ARGENTINA

The Massa-Milei run-off was widely expected but the result of the October 22 first round was less so, with Massa receiving 36.7% of the vote to nearly 30.0% for Milei. Much will…