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Inflation expectations matter more than unemployment

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

The surge in inflation this year owes more to supply bottlenecks caused by the release of pent-up demand than to falling unemployment. In the decade before the pandemic, US…

Oil price moves have limited impact on wider inflation

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INTERNATIONAL

In reality, the oil price has less influence on inflationary trends and expectations today than in earlier decades, partly because central banks have greater credibility and…

Central bank action will drive global equity markets

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INTERNATIONAL

This volatility is driven by expectations of further monetary stimulus in response to a slowing economy. Despite persistent concerns about the fallout from the anticipated…

Wage-price spiral risks should moderate in the West

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INTERNATIONAL

Many employees in sectors experiencing labour shortages are able to negotiate higher pay. Central banks are stepping up the pace of monetary policy tightening, both to slow down…

ECB will extend QE programme on December 3

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EURO-AREA

At a press conference after the previous meeting on October 22, ECB President Mario Draghi was clear that downside risks to the inflation outlook might lead to a reassessment at…

Brazil oil auctions fall short of expectations

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BRAZIL

Pre-salt oil auctions.

ECB and Fed to delay rate cuts to sustain disinflation

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EU/US

Disinflation is underway on both sides of the North Atlantic, but it is not yet deeply entrenched, giving both central banks a reason to delay cuts. The ECB must contend with…

Interest rate uncertainty keeps pressure on US bonds

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INTERNATIONAL

The Fed and ECB seem set to diverge, with the latter expected to cut rates in June. There is a rising prospect, bolstered by the resilient US labour market and Middle East…

Shrinking market imbalances will help cut US inflation

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UNITED STATES

An embedded wage-price spiral took hold in the late 1970s; the price of breaking it was almost a decade of high unemployment. Today's situation more closely resembles 1946-48…

Early Argentine economic successes are unsustainable

Location:

ARGENTINA

The government has posted the first fiscal surplus in years, inflation has declined and foreign currency reserves have risen from USD21.0bn in mid-December to USD28.5bn. However…