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Prospects for the EU in 2022

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PROSPECTS 2022

Two of the most pressing issues will be reforms to EU fiscal rules and Poland's challenge to the primacy of EU law.

Turkey will claim larger share of Balkan gas markets

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BULGARIA/TURKEY/BALKANS

Turkish state-owned utility BOTAS has a supply contract with Bulgargaz which also includes access to the Bulgarian grid. It is in position to resell Russian gas to customers in…

Hungary must make real changes to unlock EU funds

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HUNGARY/EU

The first triggering of the EU’s rule-of-law mechanism and the possibility of losing billions of euros as Hungary teeters on the brink of recession have put the government under…

The EU’s grand coalition on climate is in peril

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EU

The vote came against the backdrop of growing opposition from centre-right politicians over the law and green deal more broadly. The NRL passed with significant amendments, which…

War in Ukraine will deepen poverty in Central Europe

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EASTERN EUROPE

Central-East European (CEE) economies grow faster than most in good times but are more vulnerable in bad times, lacking the political and financial capital and competences to…

Next UK leader will struggle to unify ruling party

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UNITED KINGDOM

The party could elect a new leader by early September. Johnson’s successor will take over a deeply divided party with declining public support and pressing questions over what it…

Pre-election spending may prop up Polish economy

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POLAND

The statistical office’s provisional estimate surpassed expectations and confirmed that Poland’s diversified economy, backed by government measures, had weathered the supply…

Eastern Europe’s further convergence needs a reset

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EASTERN EUROPE

The Visegrad Four (V4) -- Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia -- have been widely regarded as an economic success in post-transition European integration, global value-chain…

Markets do not expect Hungary to quell inflation

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HUNGARY

This was legislating by decree; the announcement gave few details of the changes from the budget passed in parliament in mid-2022. The announcement did say an increase in the…

Shifts elsewhere could build up Polish policy doubts

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POLAND

Poland's rating, therefore, remains at A2, despite persistent concerns about the policies of its one-year-old nationalist government, in particular, the threats to the…