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New Irish leader will struggle to reverse polls

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IRELAND

Harris replaces Leo Varadkar, who surprisingly announced that he was stepping down ahead of local, EU and national elections. In his first speech as party leader, Harris suggested…

Elections could prove awkward for Maldives president

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MALDIVES

The two parties associated with him are currently in the minority in the unicameral legislature. Muizzu came to power after winning last year’s presidential race. He was a…

UK election could be existential for ruling party

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UK

It is trailing the opposition Labour Party by an average of 20 percentage points (pp) and its prospects have been further damaged by the decision of Nigel Farage to contest the…

Pressure on Japan’s prime minister will mount

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JAPAN

This hurts Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s credibility within the LDP and the wider nation. A change of government following the next general election would be the first in over…

EURO-AREA: Banking union faces long-term risks

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EURO-AREA

Banking union outlook.

UK voters will ignore budget and elect hung parliament

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UNITED KINGDOM

The budget will prove to be all but the last political event before the final campaign and the May 7 general election. Although the detail had to be determined in cooperation with…

Italy's Renzi will face critical tests before year-end

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ITALY

This is a crucial step for the government before year-end, together with long-term banking issues and slowing economic recovery. The European Commission has allowed Italy…

Uncertainty around UK Brexit legislation will be high

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UNITED KINGDOM

The UK government’s path to March 29, 2019, when the United Kingdom is due to leave the EU, could be blocked by parliament. There is the headline legislative work of passing any…

Myanmar mining reforms will be long-term success

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MYANMAR

Mining sector and investment in Myanmar.

Opposition win portends policy gridlock in Seoul

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SOUTH KOREA

The ruling conservative People Power Party (PPP) will take scant consolation from avoiding an opposition supermajority, as it needed a win to take control of the assembly and…