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The budget deficit is increasing markedly and will probably top 6% of GDP in 2024 -- the highest level since the late 1980s -- while economic growth remains in the 2-3% range.
The economic situation is challenging: unemployment was 16.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, and work and business opportunities are limited. The government has avoided a debt…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB287273
ISSN: 2633-304X
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A key driving factor was soaring government consumption ahead of the February general election, which included the race to succeed Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo as president, won by…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB287205
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Islamabad now seeks a larger, longer-term bailout programme with the Fund. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has suggested that a staff-level agreement on such a package could…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB286930
ISSN: 2633-304X
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After redeeming much of its USD2bn Eurobond in February, the government has effectively dispelled fears of a default. Nevertheless, it remains under pressure to consolidate public…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB286934
ISSN: 2633-304X
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President Nayib Bukele is highly popular, having implemented hard-line security policies that have reduced murder rates dramatically. He was re-elected in February by a landslide…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB286620
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Its actions included floating the currency, which triggered a major devaluation, and a 600-basis point increase in its benchmark interest rate to 27.75%. Meanwhile, the government…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB285730
ISSN: 2633-304X
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The elections, resulting in a fractured mandate and marred by allegations of rigging, have increased polarisation. Separately, Pakistan’s nine-month, roughly USD3bn Stand-By…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB285381
ISSN: 2633-304X
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The new agreement envisages a primary surplus of 2% of GDP, a zero general deficit and reserves accumulation of USD10bn; it includes no new funding. However, the widening gap…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB284724
ISSN: 2633-304X
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The budget is geared towards boosting living standards ahead of the presidential elections towards the end of the year, in which President Abdelmadjid Tebboune will most likely…