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Congressional support will assist Guatemala’s Arevalo

Location:

GUATEMALA

A Constitutional Court ruling barring members of his Movimiento Semilla (Seed Movement, Semilla) from holding congressional leadership positions will constrain the party’s room…

Landslide win gives Putin six more years

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RUSSIA

Putin won 87% of the vote on 74% turnout, surpassing the 68% seen in 2018. Communist candidate Nikolai Kharitonov came second with just under 4%. Scattered opposition protests and…

UK election could be existential for ruling party

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UK

It is trailing the opposition Labour Party by an average of 20 percentage points (pp) and its prospects have been further damaged by the decision of Nigel Farage to contest the…

Limits to Russia’s ties with Turkey will persist

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RUSSIA

Energy ties, already deep, have expanded since 2022 as part of a broader reorientation of Russian commerce away from the West. The similarly authoritarian leadership styles of…

East Europeans will gain influence on Western security

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EUROPE

She implied that the role should go to someone from Central-Eastern Europe (CEE). Von der Leyen’s message emphasises how far the balance in decision-making on European security…

Trump AI policy would prioritise US-China competition

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US

Congressional gridlock has hitherto left the White House leading on US AI policy. On the campaign trail for November’s presidential election, the prospective Republican nominee…

Consumption will remain China's key growth driver

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CHINA

Officials announced science and technology innovation as the top priority for 2024. The overall tone was supportive of economic growth, with announcements including backing for…

China’s economic targets will get trickier to achieve

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CHINA

The GDP growth target of 5% and the urban job creation target of 12 million are unchanged from last year, but harder to achieve as the post-pandemic rebound fades and large-scale…

Tehran will prioritise conservative consolidation

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IRAN

Many centrist and reformist candidates have been disqualified or declined to stand. This, together with the poor state of the economy and resentment over money spent abroad on…

Putin’s visit to China reveals economic limits

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RUSSIA

Both sides vowed to coordinate their responses to what they describe as a US-led policy ‘dual containment’ directed at Moscow and Beijing, strengthening the impression of a united…