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South-east Asia may align more with China in near term

Location:

SOUTH-EAST ASIA

A key finding is that 50.5% of respondents would pick China if forced to take sides in US-Chinese rivalry, up from 38.9% in 2023. China continues to be regarded as the most…

Any recovery from the UK recession will be very modest

Location:

UNITED KINGDOM

Government measures to boost the economy, including tax cuts in November, are having little effect. There is little scope for further stimulus in the March budget. Political…

Interest rate uncertainty keeps pressure on US bonds

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

The Fed and ECB seem set to diverge, with the latter expected to cut rates in June. There is a rising prospect, bolstered by the resilient US labour market and Middle East…

Equity markets are more vulnerable than bond markets

Location:

INT

The scope for looser policy remains uncertain given persistent inflationary pressures and the strength of the US labour market, while financial conditions are easier than when the…

Varying economic performance metrics muddy the outlook

Location:

UNITED STATES

Estimates of income rather than output, of household rather than firms' employment, and of real rather than nominal wages often diverge, but the gap has widened since the…

Prospects for the US economy in 2024

Location:

PROSPECTS 2024

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised interest rates from zero in March 2022 to 5.25-5.5% and has reduced its bond holdings from nearly USD9tn to USD7.8tn. While the Inflation…

China's consumption growth will slow

Location:

CHINA

Services including healthcare, entertainment and travel flourished while the share of housing in overall consumption fell, reflecting property-market troubles. Markedly lower…

After a strong year for Australia, growth will slow

Location:

AUSTRALIA

This figure is higher than the RBA’s forecast of 1.5%, as labour demand remains strong and business investment resumes as supply chain disruption subsides. However, persistent…

New Irish leader will struggle to reverse polls

Location:

IRELAND

Harris replaces Leo Varadkar, who surprisingly announced that he was stepping down ahead of local, EU and national elections. In his first speech as party leader, Harris suggested…

Honduras frustrations over lack of reforms will mount

Location:

HONDURAS

Slow progress in enacting reforms is fostering frustration among those who had hoped that Castro would prompt substantial change when she came to power two years ago. Her tax…