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West Bank instability risks are high

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PALESTINIANS

Even before the attacks of October 7, 2023, tensions were heightened because of settlements, weak Palestinian Authority (PA) governance and militant activities. Hamas and…

Jordan’s foreign policy will echo domestic Gaza risk

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JORDAN

The Israel-Hamas conflict looms large in Jordanian public opinion, presenting possible domestic challenges to the government. It also places pressure on core foreign policy…

Turkish foreign policy will seek a power balance

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TURKEY

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…

Israel-Palestinian Hamas Gaza war has deep roots

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PALESTINIANS/ISRAEL

The unusual attack by a member of the premier’s own party references long-standing divisions within Israel’s right wing about the decision to evacuate Gaza settlements nearly two…

Russia’s ties with Iran will grow stronger

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RUSSIA

War, sanctions and a mutual desire to overturn US-led regional security orders have pushed Moscow and Tehran closer together. Moscow desires to turn what has historically been a…

Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah manoeuvring endangers Lebanon

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PALESTINIANS/ISRAEL/LEBANON

The killing of Hamas leaders abroad follows existing Israeli policy. However, the greater significance stems from the challenge presented to the wider Iranian ‘Axis of…

Hezbollah's fight will hamper Lebanese secularists

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LEBANON

This followed a cyberattack at the airport that promulgated a warning against Shia political-military movement Hezbollah and its escalation against Israel. The Forces of Change…

Israel will carefully calibrate its Iran retaliation

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ISRAEL

The assault caused almost no damage after a combined air defence including the United States and other allies intercepted nearly all the projectiles. Nonetheless, it was Iran’s…

Syria’s mild economic recovery faces major constraints

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SYRIA

The economy is not showing serious ill effects from the overspill of the conflict in Gaza or recent aid cuts. The government may even have derived some additional financial…

Limits to Russia’s ties with Turkey will persist

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RUSSIA

Energy ties, already deep, have expanded since 2022 as part of a broader reorientation of Russian commerce away from the West. The similarly authoritarian leadership styles of…