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Iraq's militias will move to consolidate power

Location:

IRAQ

The militias have targeted Israel but largely avoided targeting US bases, for fear of Washington's retaliation and to reduce tensions with their own government. The attacks on…

Next EU parliament will likely be more right-wing

Location:

EU

EU-wide trends are overshadowing national political dynamics. Identity and Democracy (ID) and the European Conservative and Reformist (ECR) groups are benefiting from voter…

Kremlin will tighten control over information space

Location:

RUSSIA

This has enabled the leadership to manage vulnerabilities ahead of a vote intended to legitimise President Vladimir Putin's continued rule. However, the authorities’ efforts to…

Algeria will pursue stronger ties in the Sahel

Location:

ALGERIA

In February, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune announced that Algeria is planning free trade zones with Niger and Mali, despite increasingly volatile ties with the latter. That same…

Rabat’s maritime sector will help geopolitical aims

Location:

MOROCCO

Existing conditions facilitate this: the country's open economy is highly dependent on foreign trade, it enjoys access to Mediterranean and Atlantic routes and ongoing…

Abu Dhabi will leverage post-UNSC soft power

Location:

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

It struggled with this goal during two turbulent years that saw permanent UNSC members divided over significant conflicts. Nonetheless, the UAE was an engaged Security Council…

EU defence ambitions face constraints

Location:

EU

Their objectives are to enhance EU cooperation and self-sufficiency in the areas of arms production and procurement, in order to make the EU more resilient in defence and enhance…

Syria’s mild economic recovery faces major constraints

Location:

SYRIA

The economy is not showing serious ill effects from the overspill of the conflict in Gaza or recent aid cuts. The government may even have derived some additional financial…

Expropriation risks for foreigners in Russia will rise

Location:

RUSSIA

Operating restrictions on Western firms since 2022 have expanded into expropriation risks over the last year. This month Putin signed a decree to authorise the seizure of US…

Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Karabakh is settled

Location:

ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

The region’s Armenian majority population has fled; displaced Azerbaijanis have returned to Karabakh and formerly occupied surrounding districts. Russia refused to support its…