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Syria’s Islamic State legacy problem could go critical

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SYRIA

It claimed to be avenging SDF treatment of detainees at Al-Hol camp, which holds thousands of women and children linked to IS. Ongoing security threats and regional dynamics are…

US allies will worry about Trump's Asia policies

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UNITED STATES

Democrats and Republicans largely share the assessment that China poses the greatest challenge to US interests globally. The Biden administration retained Trump’s strong tariff…

The entwining of tariffs and US politics will continue

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UNITED STATES

With trade policy, particularly towards China, likely to have an unusually high-profile role in this year’s presidential election, there is a growing awareness of the extent to…

Nigeria intel failures will hinder counter-terrorism

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NIGERIA

Although criticisms targeting the DSS are long-standing, no recent Nigerian government has attempted major intelligence reforms.

South Korea may seek nuclear weapons

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SOUTH KOREA

Yoon had controversially raised that prospect a year ago. Han Dong-hoo -- head of Yoon’s conservative ruling People Power Party (PPP), and a likely future presidential contender…

North Macedonia will clash with EU and neighbours

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NORTH MACEDONIA

The right-wing Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) topped the presidential and parliamentary polls, having…

Turkish foreign policy will seek a power balance

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TURKEY

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…

Biden is embedding foreign policy in re-election bid

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US

Biden gave unusual prominence to foreign policy topics when laying out his main priorities for this year. Emphasising differences on foreign policy will be a central aspect of his…

Australian budget offers modest pre-election spending

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AUSTRALIA

The surpluses seen this year and last have proved an unexpected bonus for Labor and will enable a modest spending increase as the party prepares for the general election due by…

China’s economic targets will get trickier to achieve

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CHINA

The GDP growth target of 5% and the urban job creation target of 12 million are unchanged from last year, but harder to achieve as the post-pandemic rebound fades and large-scale…