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China’s local governments will accumulate hidden debt

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CHINA

Local governments’ fiscal positions have become increasingly untenable post-pandemic amid a property market downturn. Record numbers of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs…

Mexico’s budgetary pressures will keep growing

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MEXICO

The budget deficit is increasing markedly and will probably top 6% of GDP in 2024 -- the highest level since the late 1980s -- while economic growth remains in the 2-3% range.

Mexico candidates’ economic plans are overly ambitious

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MEXICO

Their economic proposals are intended to impress voters but seem largely uncosted and risk generating unrealistic expectations of the winner. Polling points to a clear victory for…

Kenya’s new budget targets significantly lower deficit

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KENYA

After redeeming much of its USD2bn Eurobond in February, the government has effectively dispelled fears of a default. Nevertheless, it remains under pressure to consolidate public…

El Salvador poverty will create problems for Bukele

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EL SALVADOR

President Nayib Bukele is highly popular, having implemented hard-line security policies that have reduced murder rates dramatically. He was re-elected in February by a landslide…

Australian budget offers modest pre-election spending

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AUSTRALIA

The surpluses seen this year and last have proved an unexpected bonus for Labor and will enable a modest spending increase as the party prepares for the general election due by…

Ethiopia faces tough negotiations around IMF programme

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ETHIOPIA

Addis Ababa must reach an agreement with the IMF to honour its commitments under its debt-service suspension agreement with official creditors. Thereafter, further talks will be…

Turkey will reduce inflation gradually

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TURKEY

Although the central bank has increased interest rates substantially since June 2023, the effects on economic activity and inflation have been limited. Prices and policy…

Outlook is mixed for Indonesian economy

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INDONESIA

A key driving factor was soaring government consumption ahead of the February general election, which included the race to succeed Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo as president, won by…

Pakistan will be optimistic about its IMF talks

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PAKISTAN

Islamabad now seeks a larger, longer-term bailout programme with the Fund. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has suggested that a staff-level agreement on such a package could…