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Prospects for the euro-area to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Tourism and other customer-facing sectors are growing solidly even though above-target inflation is squeezing disposable incomes. However, strong services activity is keeping core…

Dominican election result points to stability

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DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

His Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) did similarly well, securing its largest-ever Senate majority and taking a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. Success was built on a strong…

Egypt will face multiple risks in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

This will make for a challenging start of President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi’s third term, after he is inevitably re-elected in December this year. Meanwhile, the government will also…

Prospects for the euro-area in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

GDP contracted by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in July-September, according to updated estimates from Eurostat this month, having grown by 0.2% in the second quarter and not at all in…

Risks threaten optimistic Greek growth forecasts

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GREECE

After the 2021-22 post-pandemic rebound, growth is stabilising at around 2%. Barring new external shocks, it is expected to remain at this level in the coming years. Improved…

Gaza war will hit non-oil Middle East economies hard

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MIDDLE EAST

The conflict will damage the economic prospects of Israel, Egypt and Jordan, even without a major regional escalation. The Gulf Arab states, Iraq and Algeria will benefit from the…

Laos is at growing risk of sovereign debt default

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LAOS

According to a debt sustainability analysis published by the IMF in May, Laos is in debt distress. Years of rapid growth in borrowing to fund infrastructure development…

Jordan’s stalled economy risks rising social tensions

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JORDAN

The economy faces chronic problems of low growth, joblessness and declining living standards, resulting in periodic protests. Its heavy dependence on foreign aid, especially from…

Israel's economic recovery will remain restrained

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ISRAEL

The war in Gaza, which began in October 2023, was initially expected to wind down within a few months, enabling economic activity to return to normal. Instead, the fighting has…

Gulf economies are on a stable track despite risks

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GULF STATES

The IMF has revised downwards its forecast for Saudi GDP growth in 2024 to 2.7% but raised its 2025 forecast to 5.5%. This reflects a positive medium-term outlook for the Gulf…