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Russia will try to soften dismay at ending grain deal

Location:

RUSSIA

Ukraine had been a significant grain exporter, much of it to poor countries, accounting for about 10% of world trade. The invasion stopped that. In July 2022, Turkey and the UN…

Diamond sanctions will have a modest impact on Russia

Location:

RUSSIA

The ban will be extended by the end of the year to include diamonds polished in third countries, lab-grown diamonds, as well as jewellery and watches containing diamonds. The new…

French growth will be weak over the coming quarters

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FRANCE

France’s economy has performed better than its peers this year, due to weaker inflationary pressures and strong export performance in the second quarter. However, the latest…

Ukrainian grain dispute is likely to drag on

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UKRAINE

A glut of Ukrainian agricultural products has driven down prices in neighbouring countries, prompting several governments to impose unilateral import bans. Protests by Polish…

Renewed rate rises raise risk of more financial shocks

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INTERNATIONAL

While headline inflation in the United States and the euro-area has fallen steadily, core inflation remains stubborn. The ‘last mile’ of the disinflation process will be the most…

Unknowns cloud major central banks’ forward guidance

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INT

The Fed insists that subsequent moves will depend on economic developments, but its forecast implies that, although not imminent, another 25-basis-point (bp) increase will happen…

Prospects for Venezuela in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

The outlook for the government is positive. A thaw in relations with the United States and EU, plus sanctions relief, will bring economic benefits and social spending. The slow…

Turkey will claim larger share of Balkan gas markets

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BULGARIA/TURKEY/BALKANS

Turkish state-owned utility BOTAS has a supply contract with Bulgargaz which also includes access to the Bulgarian grid. It is in position to resell Russian gas to customers in…

Central America’s coffee sector faces major challenges

Location:

CENTRAL AMERICA

Coffee is an important cash crop for small farmers across the region, providing valuable income for millions of families. Coffee farms are economic engines in rural areas…

Sanctions will reduce Russia’s oil exports eventually

Location:

RUSSIA

In June 2022, Russia booked almost twice the revenue (USD20.4bn) from such exports. Declining oil income poses a serious challenge to the administration of President Vladimir…