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Prospects for Eastern EU to end-2023

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2023

Governments will rely on EU funding to re-energise their countries' economies, compensating for slowing external demand and depressed consumption. The war in Ukraine will…

Ukraine’s war recovery will need more external funding

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UKRAINE/INT

Co-organised by the UK and Ukrainian governments, the conference concentrated on Ukraine’s economic stabilisation and recovery from the effects of war. A follow-up to URC2022 held…

Germany’s NSS highlights divisions over strategy

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GERMANY

The NSS provides a comprehensive analysis of German security interests following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but fails to develop a clear roadmap for German security policy…

Investment-grade rating will benefit Greece’s economy

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GREECE

This is the first investment-grade (IG) rating given to Athens by one of the ‘big three’ rating agencies since 2010. The upgrade reflects Greece’s strong post-pandemic economic…

Inflation in Eastern Europe will slow monetary easing

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EASTERN EUROPE

The unexpected decision adds significant momentum to Central Europe’s monetary easing campaign, which began in May when Hungary’s National Bank (MNB) reduced its benchmark rate…

EU defence ambitions face constraints

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EU

Their objectives are to enhance EU cooperation and self-sufficiency in the areas of arms production and procurement, in order to make the EU more resilient in defence and enhance…

Germany will struggle to meet its defence objectives

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GERMANY

The target will be met through the regular budget and the EUR100bn (USD104bn) special defence fund, which is due to be exhausted by the end of 2027. There is no cabinet consensus…

German spending crisis will have key implications

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GERMANY

The ruling means there is a gap of at least EUR17bn (USD18.4bn) in next year’s spending that needs to be addressed. The coalition parties are divided on how to resolve the issue.

A new Polish government must undo PiS state capture

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POLAND

The United Right (ZP) coalition gained most votes, but lacked a government-forming majority. The opposition -- the Civic Coalition (KO), the Third Way (TD) coalition of Szymon…

Czech-Slovak rift may limit Visegrad effectiveness

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CZECH/SLOVAKIA

The unprecedented move is the first rift since the two countries peacefully parted more than three decades ago. It came soon after the Visegrad Four (V4) of Czechia, Hungary…