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Belarusian economy will depend on Russian support

Location:

BELARUS

The economy has been unexpectedly resilient under comprehensive economic sanctions imposed by the West. Russia could only provide limited support as its economy had to adjust to…

South-eastern Europe will focus on cross-border links

Location:

GREECE/BULGARIA/ROMANIA

The EU seeks to improve connectivity among its members and partners in South-eastern Europe, with added impetus since the invasion of Ukraine. Improved cross-border connections…

Sanctions will reduce Russia’s oil exports eventually

Location:

RUSSIA

In June 2022, Russia booked almost twice the revenue (USD20.4bn) from such exports. Declining oil income poses a serious challenge to the administration of President Vladimir…

Limits to Russia’s ties with Turkey will persist

Location:

RUSSIA

Energy ties, already deep, have expanded since 2022 as part of a broader reorientation of Russian commerce away from the West. The similarly authoritarian leadership styles of…

Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2023

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2023

Despite recent economic stabilisation, future growth prospects are severely limited owing to Russia’s international isolation. A prolonged war in Ukraine would threaten the…

Russia's ties with North Korea will grow stronger

Location:

RUSSIA

Russian technology has advanced North Korea's satellite development. Russia is strengthening economic, diplomatic and cultural ties with North Korea, although UN sanctions are an…

Belarus will stick with Russia but seek new partners

Location:

BELARUS

Putin said more would follow by the end of summer or year-end, as a warning to the West against inflicting “strategic defeat” on Russia through its support for Ukraine. Accepting…

Moscow can afford the war in Ukraine

Location:

RUSSIA

Hopes that sanctions and a sclerotic economy will hinder Russia’s war effort are likely to prove misplaced. Careful management of the budget and healthy oil revenues mean that the…

Moldova and Ukraine to upgrade cross-border links

Location:

MOLDOVA/UKRAINE

Chisinau is pursuing an overhaul of critical cross-border infrastructure. Modernising railway and road networks could provide neighbouring Ukraine with another corridor to the EU…

Russia’s budget deficit may exceed official target

Location:

RUSSIA

The federal budget deficit target for 2023, set at RUB2.9tn (USD35.8bn), is likely to be exceeded for the second year in a row. Federal expenditure is showing no signs of slowing…