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High employment and low wages will curb Russian growth

Location:

RUSSIA

In defiance of expectations following the imposition of severe sanctions, the unemployment rate has hovered around 3.2%. Yet rather than a sign of resilience, low unemployment…

Strains of war are beginning to show in Russia

Location:

RUSSIA

The invasion of Ukraine is causing strains in Russian society to show, with opposition to another mobilisation and rising appetite for peace talks. The economy is overheating in…

Attacks on Russian refineries will cause oil shortages

Location:

RUSSIA

The rising frequency of drone attacks is raising the risk of oil product shortages within Russia. Already Western sanctions on the supply of spare parts had made the maintenance…

Belarus will stick with Russia but seek new partners

Location:

BELARUS

Putin said more would follow by the end of summer or year-end, as a warning to the West against inflicting “strategic defeat” on Russia through its support for Ukraine. Accepting…

North Caucasus will remain under Moscow's control

Location:

RUSSIA

Russia has managed to ensure relative order and stability in the region in recent years, with transfers from the federal budget helping tame local opposition groups that…

Russia will try to soften dismay at ending grain deal

Location:

RUSSIA

Ukraine had been a significant grain exporter, much of it to poor countries, accounting for about 10% of world trade. The invasion stopped that. In July 2022, Turkey and the UN…

Labour shortages will dampen economic growth in Russia

Location:

RUSSIA

Although Russia's economy continued to expand briskly in the first quarter, future growth will be at risk if current imbalances in the labour market are not addressed. Labour…

Ukraine's counter-offensive fails to break deadlock

Location:

UKRAINE

Zaluzhny highlighted the problems faced by the Ukrainian military in this summer’s counter-offensive. Kyiv has so far not achieved any of its primary objectives, such as…

Kremlin will tighten control over information space

Location:

RUSSIA

This has enabled the leadership to manage vulnerabilities ahead of a vote intended to legitimise President Vladimir Putin's continued rule. However, the authorities’ efforts to…

Russia will strengthen food security measures

Location:

RUSSIA

State intervention has helped the production and export of food products to soar to record levels, with markets in Asia and the Middle East replacing those of Europe. These…