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Moscow can afford the war in Ukraine

Location:

RUSSIA

Hopes that sanctions and a sclerotic economy will hinder Russia’s war effort are likely to prove misplaced. Careful management of the budget and healthy oil revenues mean that the…

Gulf economies are on a stable track despite risks

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GULF STATES

The IMF has revised downwards its forecast for Saudi GDP growth in 2024 to 2.7% but raised its 2025 forecast to 5.5%. This reflects a positive medium-term outlook for the Gulf…

Algeria’s budget will drive up public debt

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ALGERIA

The budget is geared towards boosting living standards ahead of the presidential elections towards the end of the year, in which President Abdelmadjid Tebboune will most likely…

War in Ukraine will impel Kazakhstan to diversify

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KAZAKHSTAN

Kazakhstan’s economy has weathered well the turbulences created by the war in Ukraine. A new context for the country’s traditional aspirations to balance and diversify economic…

Uzbek president’s problems will mount in long term

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UZBEKISTAN

Constitutional change could keep him in power until 2037, providing an opportunity to transform Uzbekistan’s socio-economic conditions. However, significant domestic and foreign…

Omani fiscal plans will depend on social impact

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OMAN

Leading international credit ratings agencies had upgraded their outlook for Oman in early 2023. Positive reviews reflect the sultanate’s improved financial performance in 2022…

Egypt will focus on boosting industrial output

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EGYPT

Stabilisation measures implemented with Gulf assistance this year have created a platform for manufacturing growth. If this can be directed to boost manufactured exports, it would…

Prospects for African economies to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

The downgrade reflects the expected realisation this year of the delayed global economic slowdown. The resulting debt overhang in the region has depleted the space for fiscal…

Gaza war will hit non-oil Middle East economies hard

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MIDDLE EAST

The conflict will damage the economic prospects of Israel, Egypt and Jordan, even without a major regional escalation. The Gulf Arab states, Iraq and Algeria will benefit from the…

Venezuela sanctions leave political and economic woes

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VENEZUELA

Washington is starting to address the problematic legacy of the Trump administration's Venezuela policy. US economic and oil sanctions have not achieved the goal of dislodging…