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Egypt will try to strengthen its position in Libya

Location:

LIBYA

This was a show of strength and a threat to Cairo, given the value of remittances sent home by the many Egyptian labourers in the east. The move reflected the undercurrent of…

The United States will balance North African ties

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NORTH AFRICA

US attention to the region has risen amid tenser Algerian-Moroccan ties. Harris underlined that any military escalation would be "quite alarming" and would set back prospects for…

EU Israel-Palestine policy will remain contradictory

Location:

EU

The lack of a clear strategy is systemic, arising from the lack of a functioning common EU foreign policy. Stuck in the parameters of the two-state solution and refusing to…

Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Karabakh is settled

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ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

The region’s Armenian majority population has fled; displaced Azerbaijanis have returned to Karabakh and formerly occupied surrounding districts. Russia refused to support its…

The Huthis will grow more emboldened within Yemen

Location:

YEMEN

These shifts were already underway before the airstrikes began in November 2023. Notably, factions within the Islamist Islah political party have publicly and privately expressed…

Turkey’s defence industry is set for growth

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TURKEY

A major milestone was showcased in February, as KAAN, the country’s first domestically produced fifth-generation combat aircraft, made its maiden flight. The aircraft is equipped…

Abu Dhabi will leverage post-UNSC soft power

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UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

It struggled with this goal during two turbulent years that saw permanent UNSC members divided over significant conflicts. Nonetheless, the UAE was an engaged Security Council…

Algeria will pursue stronger ties in the Sahel

Location:

ALGERIA

In February, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune announced that Algeria is planning free trade zones with Niger and Mali, despite increasingly volatile ties with the latter. That same…

Beijing-ASEAN South China Sea tensions will grow

Location:

CHINA/ASEAN

While there is always potential for unplanned escalation, recent incidents in the area are unlikely to change the basic dynamics there: China’s increasing assertion of ‘on-water’…

Moroccan-Israeli ties will substantively advance

Location:

MOROCCO

This came just after a June 18 visit by Israel's interior minister and several other high-level official trips designed to showcase the dividends of 'normalisation' to the region.