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Laos is at growing risk of sovereign debt default

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LAOS

According to a debt sustainability analysis published by the IMF in May, Laos is in debt distress. Years of rapid growth in borrowing to fund infrastructure development…

Politics will drive growth in trade de-dollarisation

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INTERNATIONAL

A move away from the US dollar is gaining momentum, driven by the West’s use of economic sanctions, high levels of sovereign debt and a desire to de-link monetary policy from the…

ASEAN leadership will stretch Laos in 2024

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LAOS

The theme it has chosen for its chairmanship is ‘enhancing connectivity and resilience’. The reference to ‘resilience’ is apt, as Laos is attempting to manage severe economic…

Sri Lanka move on domestic debt will be of limited use

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SRI LANKA

Securing debt restructuring agreements is a key condition of the four-year, USD3bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme which the IMF’s Executive Board approved in March…

Internationalisation of China’s renminbi will be slow

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CHINA

Specifically, China would enhance infrastructural and institutional mechanisms for cross-border transfers, as well as boost the currency’s role in driving the real economy and…

Egypt will face multiple risks in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

This will make for a challenging start of President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi’s third term, after he is inevitably re-elected in December this year. Meanwhile, the government will also…

The Gaza war will worsen Jordan’s long-term debt risk

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JORDAN

He was speaking at the signing ceremony for the first USD845mn grant bolstering the national budget, under a new agreement signed this year. The Gaza war has exacerbated concerns…

Weaker finance context would test all emerging markets

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INTERNATIONAL

These markets are benefitting from the softer US dollar and improved investor perceptions of central bank credibility. However, destabilising factors loom on the horizon.

Russia’s budget deficit may exceed official target

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RUSSIA

The federal budget deficit target for 2023, set at RUB2.9tn (USD35.8bn), is likely to be exceeded for the second year in a row. Federal expenditure is showing no signs of slowing…

Egypt's economy will stand on firmer ground

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EGYPT

Its actions included floating the currency, which triggered a major devaluation, and a 600-basis point increase in its benchmark interest rate to 27.75%. Meanwhile, the government…