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Russia’s budget deficit may exceed official target

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RUSSIA

The federal budget deficit target for 2023, set at RUB2.9tn (USD35.8bn), is likely to be exceeded for the second year in a row. Federal expenditure is showing no signs of slowing…

Diamond sanctions will have a modest impact on Russia

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RUSSIA

The ban will be extended by the end of the year to include diamonds polished in third countries, lab-grown diamonds, as well as jewellery and watches containing diamonds. The new…

Shipbuilding will thwart Russia’s naval modernisation

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RUSSIA

The change of management at OSK signals the Kremlin’s dissatisfaction with the slow pace of Russia’s protracted naval modernisation programme. Vast sums were spent yet only a…

Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Despite recent economic stabilisation, future growth prospects are severely limited owing to Russia’s international isolation. A prolonged war in Ukraine would threaten the…

Russia will expand support to small businesses

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RUSSIA

However, small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a significant role in the economy, especially in service industries. They also provide a rising share of new jobs. The…

Russia will trap foreign investors in a gilded cage

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RUSSIA

Foreign investors seeking to leave Russia face several serious challenges. One is Russian government legislation that imposes onerous losses on those who exit. Another is that…

Sanctions will increase risks for Russian economy

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RUSSIA

However, although output has grown, a tight labour market and persistent inflation have created new problems. The reorientation of trade away from Europe has resulted in a…

Smaller trade surplus will keep ruble low this year

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RUSSIA

Pronounced ruble depreciation this year attests to the efficacy of sanctions in disrupting Russia’s external trade. The weaker ruble has already provoked a spike in household…

War in Ukraine will impel Kazakhstan to diversify

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KAZAKHSTAN

Kazakhstan’s economy has weathered well the turbulences created by the war in Ukraine. A new context for the country’s traditional aspirations to balance and diversify economic…