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Ethiopia’s Amhara conflict may be protracted

Location:

ETHIOPIA

Following an extension of the state of emergency in February, new army offensives, including around the regional capital, Bahir Dar, have intensified the conflict. Reports of…

Dinar ban will damage EU-led Kosovo-Serbia dialogue

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KOSOVO

A Central Bank regulation reaffirming the euro as sole legal tender has alarmed Kosovo’s Serbs who see it as a direct threat to their existence and is jeopardising already complex…

Brazil Amazon illegal mining will exacerbate violence

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BRAZIL

The ‘new gold rush’ in the Amazon almost trebled between 2017 and 2020, boosted by international gold prices and insufficient surveillance and law enforcement. This trend has…

New Indian alliance may struggle to get poll-ready

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INDIA

The alliance was formed to strengthen the opposition challenge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will…

Gaza overspill is a possible risk to Balkan security

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BALKANS

After an incident in late September that left one Kosovar police officer and three Serbian gunmen dead, the dispute over Kosovo’s sovereignty has become more dangerous, prompting…

Puntland crisis underscores Somali election dilemmas

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SOMALIA

Deni and the Puntland electoral commission seek to hold direct elections, while the opposition demand a return to a clan-based electoral system. Meanwhile, with the election…

‘Sheger City’ plan will fuel Ethiopia tensions

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ETHIOPIA

Notably, this includes the new ‘Sheger City’, which consolidates several towns and villages surrounding Addis Ababa. The move is controversial due to fears the Oromia government…

Islamic State poses limited threat in Afghanistan

Location:

AFGHANISTAN

Some observers have suggested that this is a sign of an IS-K resurgence. The ruling Taliban have tried hard since their takeover in 2021 to suppress the group, a long-standing…

Mali's northern goals may hurt relations with Algeria

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MALI

Dicko met with Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune. Algiers claimed the meetings with northern armed groups were part of a mediation effort regarding which Malian authorities…

Abyei conflict may trigger wider unrest in South Sudan

Location:

SOUTH SUDAN

Government attempts to stop the clashes have been ineffective, and both sides have used Nuer forces from elsewhere in South Sudan, risking a broadening conflict.