Search results

Smaller trade surplus will keep ruble low this year

Location:

RUSSIA

Pronounced ruble depreciation this year attests to the efficacy of sanctions in disrupting Russia’s external trade. The weaker ruble has already provoked a spike in household…

War in Ukraine will impel Kazakhstan to diversify

Location:

KAZAKHSTAN

Kazakhstan’s economy has weathered well the turbulences created by the war in Ukraine. A new context for the country’s traditional aspirations to balance and diversify economic…

Sanctions will increase risks for Russian economy

Location:

RUSSIA

However, although output has grown, a tight labour market and persistent inflation have created new problems. The reorientation of trade away from Europe has resulted in a…

Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2023

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2023

Despite recent economic stabilisation, future growth prospects are severely limited owing to Russia’s international isolation. A prolonged war in Ukraine would threaten the…

Iran is approaching the limits of its oil expansion

Location:

IRAN

Iran’s increasingly skilled sanctions evasion (aided by less intense US enforcement) has made it the second-largest contributor to higher global oil output over the past year…

Militarisation will cause rising distortions in Russia

Location:

RUSSIA

Record levels of defence spending have led to surging demand for inputs used to manufacture military equipment, driving up output across various sectors. However, evidence of…

Bangladesh government will shrug off criticism

Location:

BANGLADESH

Critics say the move weakens the Bangladesh Election Commission (EC). The next general election will likely take place in January. The ruling Awami League (AL) continues to reject…

Syria's ruler will seek to ride out economic protests

Location:

SYRIA

The demonstrations were triggered by Assad’s mid-August announcement of big fuel price increases, only partly mitigated by rises in salaries and pensions. However, they have been…

ASEAN will pursue incremental engagement in Myanmar

Location:

MYANMAR

Myanmar’s junta for the first time accepted the invitation to have a ‘non-political’ representative at high-level ASEAN meetings, standing since its exclusion from such events…

Russia's budget revenue forecast may prove optimistic

Location:

RUSSIA

The Ministry of Finance is seeking new ways to boost federal revenues to fund rising military expenditure, as well as any pledges made during the forthcoming presidential election…